Cocoa price 2026: why farmers get less and chocolate stays expensive

On the futures market, cocoa costs less than half as much as at its 2024 record. Yet chocolate is only slowly getting cheaper, and many farmers are getting less.Futures prices since the record, farmgate prices in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana and chocolate prices in Germany.

In December 2024, a tonne of cocoa cost around 12,900 US dollars in New York. At the end of October 2026, it is around 5,600 US dollars. Along the way, the price even fell below 3,000 US dollars in February 2026 and has almost doubled since then.

These swings reach farmers and shoppers late.

The futures market: from record to crash and halfway back

Cocoa is traded in New York in US dollars and in London in pounds sterling, in each case per tonne. We converted the euro values using the ECB reference rates of 22 October 2026 (€1 = 1.1205 US dollars = 0.8377 pounds).

This puts the New York price around 57 per cent below the record (our calculation).

Why the price swings: harvest, weather, stocks

On the futures market, traders buy and sell cocoa for later delivery dates. The price therefore mainly shows what the market expects for the coming months. Harvest estimates and weather reports from West Africa often move it more than the beans being shipped right now.

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimates a small surplus of 37,000 tonnes for the 2024/25 season, with a world harvest of 4.73 million tonnes. Its secretariat is holding back figures for 2025/26 for now. On 22 October 2026, rising exchange stocks weighed on the price, according to Trading Economics.

By 18 October, 78,212 tonnes had arrived at Ivorian ports, 41 per cent less than in the same period a year earlier. The analysis firm StoneX estimates the Ivorian 2026/27 harvest at around 1.77 million tonnes, 11 per cent less than before. Ghana’s cocoa board expects 650,000 tonnes. Both are estimates, not results.

Then there is the weather. The ICCO points to risks from an El Niño event expected for late 2026. The Climate Prediction Center of the US weather service sees this El Niño as likely to be among the strongest in over 75 years. Barchart reports this. That too is a forecast, not a fact.

Demand is picking up slightly. European processors ground 348,215 tonnes of cocoa in the third quarter of 2026, according to the European Cocoa Association. That is 3.2 per cent more than a year earlier. In Germany, the figure was around 98,275 tonnes according to the German confectionery industry association, an increase of 3.6 per cent.

Côte d’Ivoire: a fixed farmgate price, sold early

According to official figures, more than 1.2 million farmers grow cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire. Before each harvest, the state sets the minimum they receive per kilo of dried beans. This is the farmgate price.

On 1 September 2026, Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagné Koné announced the price for the main crop until the end of February 2027. It stays at 1,200 CFA francs per kilo. The government had already cut the price to this level in March 2026 to revive sales after the market crash. At the start of the 2025/26 season, it had still been 2,800 francs. We converted at the fixed rate of 655.957 francs per euro.

The reason for the low price lies in the marketing system. The state Coffee and Cocoa Council sells a large part of the harvest in advance. According to the agency Ecofin, almost 1 million tonnes of the new main crop had been sold by June 2026. They went at the low prices of the spring. From these sales, the government works out what it can pay farmers without straining the budget.

Per tonne, farmers therefore receive around €1,830. That is about 37 per cent of the London futures price on 22 October (our calculation). The figures are not fully comparable. Transport, export levies and trading margins sit between the farm gate and the exchange, and the harvest was sold at earlier prices. A February 2026 study cited by Ecofin found that on average 67 per cent of Ivorian cocoa farmers’ household income comes from selling beans.

Ghana: 70 per cent of the export price by law

Ghana founded the Cocoa Marketing Board as early as 1947, which later became today’s cocoa authority COCOBOD. It buys the harvest, markets it and sets the producer price.

Since 2026, there has been a new rule for this. Under the cocoa law Act 1182, farmers must receive at least 70 per cent of the export value achieved free on board. On 25 September 2026, COCOBOD set the 2026/27 price at 42,400 cedis per tonne. According to the authority, this equals 71.18 per cent of the export value.

That is just over 2 per cent more than the last price of the previous season. Compared with the peak of October 2025, it is around 27 per cent lower (our calculation). There are no euro values because the ECB does not publish a reference rate for the cedi.

Internationally, the ICCO has regulated trade since 1973. A new International Cocoa Agreement came into force on 1 October 2026. You’ll find more on certification premiums and direct trade in direct trade, Fairtrade and other labels.

Chocolate in the shops: prices fall with a delay

So far, little of the market crash has reached supermarkets. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), chocolate cost 21.8 per cent more in October 2025 than a year earlier. Chocolate bars cost as much as 30.7 per cent more. In December 2025, a bar cost 69 per cent more on average than in 2020.

At import, cocoa is now much cheaper. In August 2026, raw cocoa imported into Germany cost 27.7 per cent less than a year earlier. Cocoa butter cost as much as 44.7 per cent less. Compared with July, however, raw cocoa rose by 7.2 per cent. No current figure for consumer prices for chocolate was available up to 24 October 2026.

There is a simple reason for the delay. Manufacturers buy cocoa long in advance or hedge on the futures market. The bar on the shelf was often made with cocoa bought at earlier, higher prices. In August 2026, the head of a large Swiss premium manufacturer’s German arm spoke about the lower cocoa prices. He said his company would only feel them in 2027. He announced price cuts of up to 21.5 per cent on selected products by Christmas.

Large retailers cut the price of an own-brand bar of milk chocolate by 10 cents to 89 cents as early as February 2026. A similar pattern can be seen with coffee, as explained in green coffee gets cheaper, coffee on the shelf doesn’t.

Craft chocolate and origin: other ways of buying

Many small makers buy their beans directly or through specialist traders. On the bar they name the country and region, often the cooperative or farm too. You’ll find examples from Germany, Austria and Switzerland in craft chocolate from the DACH region. The US chocolate expert Clay Gordon stresses that futures prices are a global benchmark and don’t show what farmers receive. Cocoa: child labour, poverty and deforestation describes the consequences of incomes that are too low.

From 30 December 2026, the EU Deforestation Regulation also applies to large and medium-sized companies. Companies that sell cocoa in the EU must then prove that it doesn’t come from land cleared after 2020. The details are in EUDR: what applies to coffee and cocoa.

The cocoa price has more than halved since the record. But fixed pricing in West Africa and manufacturers’ long buying cycles dampen every movement. Ivorian farmers are getting considerably less money this season. In the shops, the lower cocoa costs have so far only shown up in individual products.

Last updated: 24 October 2026.