Coffee prices in November: what Arabica and Robusta are doing on the exchange

On the New York exchange, Arabica costs around 287 US cents per pound, roughly €5.67 per kilo of green coffee. That is around 27 per cent less than a year ago.Arabica and Robusta prices in 2026, the drivers from Brazil to the EU deforestation regulation, and supermarket prices.

In February 2025, green coffee was more expensive than ever before. Since then the price has fallen sharply, driven by a record harvest in Brazil. In October 2026, the market briefly turned upwards again. The exchange warehouses hold hardly any coffee, and the El Niño weather pattern is looming. By the end of October, Arabica had given up those gains.

The prices in this article are dated closing prices and monthly averages. We converted foreign currencies using the ECB reference rate of 30 October 2026 (€1 = 1.1172 US dollars). One pound (lb) equals 0.4536 kilograms.

Where things stand this autumn: Arabica gives up its October gains

On 21 October 2026, Arabica for December delivery closed at 316.15 US cents per pound. That was the highest level since the end of August. On 16 October, the price had risen by 3.7 per cent in a single day. After that, it fell for six trading days in a row. On 30 October, Arabica closed at 287.20 cents, about 1.2 per cent below the close of 30 September.

Robusta, the cheaper species used in espresso blends and instant coffee, is traded in London in US dollars per tonne. The January contract closed on 30 October at 3,204 US dollars, which converts to around €2,868 per tonne or €2.87 per kilo. What sets the two species apart is explained in Arabica or robusta: flavour, caffeine, growing and price.

At the closing price of 30 October, a 60 kg bag of Arabica was worth around 380 US dollars, which converts to around €340. That is the exchange price for green coffee, without freight, roasting, tax and trade.

From record to slide: the market year in numbers

Arabica hit its record high of 440.85 cents per pound in February 2025, around €8.70 per kilo at today’s exchange rate. Robusta reached a record of 5,817 US dollars per tonne on 13 February 2025. After that, prices went downhill. In early June 2026, Arabica was trading at just 250 to 255 cents, close to its lowest level since the end of 2024.

The monthly averages come from the market reports of the International Coffee Organization (ICO). The conversion of the Robusta figures from cents per pound to dollars per tonne is ours. The ICO composite is a blended price across all types and markets. In September it fell by 8.7 per cent compared with August.

Empty warehouses, full harvest: why Arabica swung in October

The main reason for the mid-October rise lay in the warehouses of the ICE exchange. At the end of October they held just around 240,000 bags of certified Arabica. In September, at 217,646 bags, stocks were at their lowest in 27 years. Traders doubt that Brazilian coffee will reach the warehouses before the December contract expires.

Yet there is actually plenty of coffee around. On 24 September, Brazil’s agricultural agency CONAB estimated the 2026 harvest at a record 67.6 million bags. The US Department of Agriculture expects a record global harvest of 189.7 million bags. Analyst Vicente Zotti therefore sees the October rise mainly as short covering by speculators, not as a real shortage. At the end of October, a weaker Brazilian real and strong exports from Brazil pushed the price back below 300 cents.

The concern is more about the next harvest. El Niño could disrupt the rainy season in Brazil during flowering and depress the 2027/28 harvest. In Vietnam, the Robusta harvest is just starting, and volumes are expected to be roughly in line with last year. Colombia, on the other hand, reported 15 per cent lower production.

Tariffs and the deforestation law: politics in the coffee sack

In 2025, the USA imposed a punitive tariff of 40 per cent on Brazilian food. On 20 November 2025, President Trump exempted coffee, beef, cocoa and fruit again, retroactively from 13 November. On 20 February 2026, the Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA emergency powers law does not allow tariffs. The Brazil tariffs, however, were not part of the case.

Since 22 July 2026, a new US tariff of 25 per cent has applied to most goods from Brazil. This time it is based on Section 301 of the Trade Act. Coffee is explicitly exempt, including unflavoured instant coffee. So for now, the tariffs no longer play a direct role in the coffee price.

In the EU, the EUDR deforestation regulation takes effect on 30 December 2026 for large and medium-sized companies. Small and micro enterprises follow on 30 June 2027. According to its review of May 2026, the European Commission is not planning any further delay. What the rules mean for roasters and importers is explained in the EUDR and coffee and cocoa.

In the supermarket: what reaches the coffee shelf

The fall is slowly reaching the shops. According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), coffee, tea and cocoa cost 3.3 per cent less in September 2026 than a year earlier. Overall inflation was 3.3 per cent, and food became 0.4 per cent more expensive. The press release gives no separate figure for coffee beans alone.

There are reasons why shelf prices follow the exchange price only slowly and in a weaker form. Roasters often buy and hedge their green coffee months in advance, and coffee tax, roasting, packaging and retail come on top. Our article why cheaper green coffee doesn’t mean cheaper coffee on the shelf shows why green coffee makes up only part of the price. With specialty coffee, the exchange price matters even less, see why specialty coffee costs so much.

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Outlook for 2027: surplus versus El Niño

On paper, a lot points to cheaper green coffee. The ICO estimates a surplus of 3.0 million bags for 2025/26, and the analysis firm Hedgepoint even 8.9 million bags for the new season. Trading Economics expects Arabica at around 267 cents per pound in twelve months, which is less than today. Model forecasts like these are no guarantee.

On the other side are the tight exchange stocks and the weather. A strong El Niño could hit flowering in Brazil and the 2027/28 harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. From 30 December 2026, the EUDR adds new due diligence requirements. That is why the coffee price is likely to stay jittery over the coming weeks.

For you, this means coffee on the shelf is more likely to get cheaper slowly than to get more expensive quickly. Whether the exchange price climbs again depends above all on rainfall in Brazil over the coming weeks.

All product details are based on manufacturer and retailer information; we have not tested the products ourselves.

Last updated: 31 October 2026.

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